Checkpoint March 15, 2026
Almost exactly a year ago I wrote that, in part because it was a “challenge to choose a topic to focus on in the current information environment,” I would post a “checkpoint” article instead that looked at a variety of topics making headlines at the time, including: the stopgap funding bill, debate over a possible government shutdown, early signs of “uncertainty” about the Trump presidency among Republicans, and a discussion of effective protests.
A year later we’re in the midst of another shutdown – this one “partial” – and although some of the topics have changed or mutated, a “firehose” of factual and counterfactual stories continues to emanate from the administration, the Republican party, MAGA world, etc.
The story grabbing the most headlines at the moment is undoubtedly what Trump has labeled his “excursion” into Iran.
On February 27 as Trump left the White House on his way to Texas he told reporters that he was “not happy” with the negotiations between US special envoy Steven Witkoff, Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Iranian representatives in Geneva. According to multiple reports, Iranian negotiators had presented Witkoff and Kushner with a proposal to discontinue using uranium other than an only lightly enriched variant at a civilian facility that the US built and provided to Iran in 1967. Witkoff subsequently made statements that suggested he either believed or wanted others to believe that the proposal constituted a threat by Iran to continue to develop nuclear weapons.
While nuclear reactors that produce electricity generally need uranium enriched only around 5 percent, uranium intended for weapons typically requires enrichment around 90 percent. Uranium enriched at a 20 percent level, which is what was under discussion, would likely be intended for research and producing medicine. Witkoff, a real estate executive, Trump confidante, and special envoy to the Middle East in the second Trump administration, has come under criticism for – intentionally or not – blurring the distinction between the enrichment of uranium for peaceful purposes with processing it for the creation of nuclear weapons. Witkoff and Kushner, with no nuclear expertise of their own, opted not to have nuclear experts on their team negotiating with Iran, and chose to skip talks scheduled in Vienna in early March that were intended to focus specifically on technical nuclear issues. The duo reportedly told Trump “on the eve” of the US attack that Iran was using the talks as a delaying tactic while it enriched uranium for weapons.
The same day, as he flew to Texas, Trump gave the order to launch the operation that was named “Epic Fury” – instantly re-named “Epstein Fury” by members of the public. Trump’s order put final operational preparations in motion, including defense batteries, air crews loading weapons and rehearsing, and air carrier groups moving into place. As he landed in Corpus Christi, TX he did not reveal that he had given the order to attack.
According to reporting by the AP, the attack actually began at 1:15am Monday, February 28. Using targeting information developed by the CIA and shared with Israel, strikes at three locations killed Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and 40 senior leaders of the Iranian government. As with all government actions of global importance, Trump announced Khamenei’s death on his Trump Social social media site; the time was 4:37pm EST.
Almost immediately multiple ships in the neighborhood of the Strait of Hormuz, which separates Iran from Dubai and the Persian Gulf from the Gulf of Oman, received VHF transmissions that the strait was closed to naval traffic. The UK Navy advised ships to proceed with caution, noting that the restriction was not legally binding. However, the US Navy warned that it could not guarantee the safety of shipping in the entire area. One fifth of global oil production from sources including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran, as well as a large quantity of natural gas (LNG) from Qatar passes through the strait.
On March 2 Defense Secretary Hegseth said at a Pentagon briefing that he did not expect a lengthy operation, and Trump later said he expected the action to last four to five weeks.
Compounding the effect of the blocked Strait of Hormuz, QatarEnergy announced it had stopped all production when two industrial areas in Qatar were hit by Iranian drones. Natural gas prices in Europe rose 40%. (Bloomberg reported later that the main QatarEnergy LNG facility did not appear to have been hit.)
The Independent UK has reported that despite the military action affecting the Strait of Hormuz, the US has proceeded with a pre-existing plan to decommission four remaining minesweepers that could have been used to help keep the vital thoroughfare open even in the face of Iranian mining of the waterway. A cargo ship, the Seaway Hawk, carrying the minesweepers, arrived in Philadelphia escorted by a Navy vessel on Tuesday, March 10, which is also the day Iran reportedly began mining the strait. The ship accompanying the Seaway Hawk was itself a so-called Littoral Combat Ship (LCS), whose development has suffered cost overruns and questions about its combat viability, but has apparently been designated to be outfitted with minesweeping capability.
The New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal among other outlets have documented that Trump made the decision to attack Iran despite warnings from Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Dan Caine that Iran would likely close the Strait of Hormuz in response. According to “people with knowledge of these discussions,” Trump thought Tehran would capitulate before Iranian forces could close the strait, and that the US military could deal with the attempts in any case. As of March 13, two week into the conflict, Iran has blocked tankers and attacked cargo ships near the Strait of Hormuz. At least 13 Americans have been killed and 200 wounded. Approximately 175 people – mostly schoolchildren – were killed in a missile strike on a girls’ school in Iran, which a preliminary Pentagon review found was likely caused by the US.
The State department did not advise US citizens to leave the region or embassies to evacuate until after the war had started. With airspace closed, thousands of US citizens were left stranded, including staff at some embassies.
Reporting by CNN and elsewhere found that the Trump administration did not plan for the closing of the Strait of Hormuz because they believed it would “hurt Iran more than the US.” As Talking Points Memo’s Josh Marshall wrote, “It’s hard to overstate this level of stupidity, incompetence and arrogance.” Marshall notes that 30 years of US military planning and war gaming has included scenarios focused on Iran or fictional equivalents, because “the U.S. been the guarantor of free navigation in the Gulf since the early 1970s and Iran has been its top regional adversary since 1979.”
… Trump started this war without caring that much about any of the issues involved. It was just his latest momentary hobbyhorse because he’s currently focused on foreign wars as an emotional support power to help him cope with his declining popularity and power at home.
While Treasury and Energy Department officials were included in “some” of the planning meetings for the operation, “analysis and forecasts that would be integral elements of the decision-making process in past administrations were secondary considerations.”
As a result, the administration seemed caught off guard by the immediate and global impact of Iran’s effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Gas prices rose 60 cents per gallon in the first week of the conflict. But beyond energy, the strait is a key shipping route for other items, such as helium and fertilizer, whose price and availability affect other areas of the economy. Prices for urea, a key fertilizer used by agricultural producers, rose by 30 percent in the first two weeks of the Iran conflict – this just as farmers began their Spring planting. The American Farm Bureau Federation warned that a prolonged fertilizer shortage could lead to price increases and food shortages similar to those seen in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. (Russia supplies roughly 20 percent of fertilizer globally.)
Helium spot prices rose 60 percent in the same period. Helium is used in semiconductor production, MRI machines, and welding – not to mention party balloons (reportedly 10 to 20 percent of the market).
USA Today’s Chris Brennan and others have observed that one beneficiary of the economic dislocation caused by the US military action in Iran is … (surprise?) … Russia. On March 5 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a 30-day waiver on US sanctions on Russian oil, which will enable countries to buy Russian oil that was already in tankers but could not be sold. Bessent claimed the lifting of sanctions would ease the global economic impact of the US war with Iran. While acknowledging the benefit to Russia, some analysts downplayed the likely long term impact on energy prices of lifting the Russian sanctions. Britain, Canada, and Germany have criticized the sanction waiver.
Australia’s Lowy Institute suggested that Russia “will be hoping that the US finds itself embroiled in a costly conflict (in both blood and treasure), that aggravates political and social tensions at home….” A break between the US and key allies in the Middle East could provide an opportunity for Russia to “rebuild influence,” both in Iran and the wider region, including perhaps especially Syria. The Middle East conflict could also distract the US and Europe from Ukraine, putting a strain on the supply of key munitions, and allowing Russia to accelerate its assault on eastern Ukraine.
FPRI’s Robert Person sees three points of intersection between US operations in Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The most immediate effect, Person writes, is on air defense, with Patriot missiles already in short supply. Ironically the Geran drones that Russia uses against Ukrainian air defenses are modeled after the Shahed drones that Russia obtained from Iran in the first year of full-scale invasion. The second effect Person notes is the impact on oil pricing and availability, which we’ve discussed above. The third effect Person predicts is increasing fatigue and opposition to military ventures in US public opinion, which he suggests could lead to more strident calls for US isolationism and withdrawal from multiple conflicts.
On Friday, March 13, Trump announced that the US had attacked “military” targets on Kharg Island, through which 90 percent of exported Iranian oil passes. The next day Trump initially posted on social media that “Many Countries” would be sending “War Ships” to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open. A few hours later his tone changed, however, as he posted that countries who rely on oil that transits the Straite of Hormuz “must take care of that passage.” Reporting by the CBC characterized international response to Trump’s hiding as “cautious.”
Bloomberg’s Javier Blas reported this weekend that key ports may be running out of fuel. Two in particular he cites are Singapore, and Fujarah in the United Arab Emirates just east of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is trading there between $140 and $175 a barrel, “well above the peaks of 2022 and 2008.” And even at those prices, the commodity is scarce, and quoted prices are reportedly only valid “for a few minutes.”
A key factor is that Hormuz is not just a critical conduit for crude oil, it provides passage for fuel oil refined in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the Emirates, totaling 20% of what’s traded globally. Persian Gulf crude also yields more fuel oil per barrel than that from other regions – 50% compared to 33% of West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Shipping and oil companies are apparently moving fuel around from European ports like Rotterdam and Gibraltar. But the ultimate risk is that ships “won’t have sufficient fuel to keep traveling.”
Meanwhile, on the domestic front, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and its Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency have wrought havoc over the past year. According to the Brookings Institution, between January 2025 and January 2026, ICE deported approximately 540,000 people.
In early June, federal agents began arresting people in downtown Los Angeles and nearby neighborhoods, including at a Home Depot in the Westlake area, and in the Fashion District. Protests followed. Trump called in the National Guard, and 700 Marines were activated; California sued the Trump administration over the federalization of the National Guard. On June 10 a curfew was imposed on downtown LA. On June 12 Senator Alex Padilla was handcuffed as he tried to interrupt the first in-person news conference by DHS since the June arrests began. On June 14 thousands of protesters in LA participated in the nationwide “No Kings” protests.On July 1 the National Guard was released following a request for some members to return to wildfire duty.
As of August 2025 nine Republican-led states had authorized their National Guard to cooperate with ICE operations. On September 8 Trump launched so-called “Operation Midway Blitz” in Chicago and Illinois. The administration presented the operation as targeting criminals supposedly released by local and state officials, although numerous claims were rejected by courts.
Then in December DHS initiated “Operation Metro Surge,” which sent additional ICE and US Border Patrol agents to the Twin Cities. On January 7, 2026 Renee Nicole Good, a 37-year-old mother living in Minneapolis, was shot by ICE agent Jonathan Ross, subsequently ruled a homicide. On January 24 intensive care nurse Alex Pretti was shot by two Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents.
Greg Bovino, who had led CBP operations in Los Angeles, Chicago, and Minneapolis, claimed that Pretti “intended to inflict maximum damage and massacre law enforcement,” that Pretti had “approached” agents with a 9 mm weapon, and had “violently resisted” agents attempting to restrain him. Bovino’s statements were contradicted by video taken by bystanders, which showed Pretti holding a phone. As facts about the Minneapolis shootings emerged and the White House came under pressure, Bovino’s access to social media accounts was revoked (!), information leaked that he would lose his informal title of “commander-at-large,” and he was eventually reassigned to his original position in El Centro, CA.
On March 3, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem appeared at a contentious Senate hearing. (Noem had appeared previously before Congress in December.) Under questioning from Democratic Senators Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Dick Durbin of Illinois Noem refused to retract her earlier characterizations of Good and Pretti as associated with domestic terrorism. Noem came under criticism from Republicans as well, with Senators Tom Tillis of North Carolina and John Kennedy of Louisiana. Kennedy challenged Noem about a reported $220 million ad campaign featuring her that some observers characterized as resembling political advertising. Kennedy stated that his research showed the contract had not been bid out; one subcontract was previously reported to have been awarded to the husband of former DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin. Senator Tillis criticized Noem’s leadership of the department, focusing particularly on lack of communication about immigration operations in North Carolina, and “stalling” FEMA assistance to his state.
At a House Oversight Committee hearing the next day, Noem was asked point-blank by Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove, Democrat of California, if she was having sexual relations with former Trump campaign manager and current “special government employee” (SGE) Corey Lewandowski. Noem complained to the committee chair about the question, but did not directly deny the implicit allegation.
Two days later Trump fired Noem as DHS Secretary, replacing her with Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma, perhaps best known for bragging about not wearing a seatbelt for fear of being carjacked, or confusing Pete Hegseth with Pete Buttigieg.
Looming over all of this – and in fact any action by Trump – is the ongoing matter of convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein and his network of associates among the prominent and notable, including Donald Trump.
On November 18 the House passed the Epstein Files Transparency Act 427-1, and the Senate passed the measure unanimously the next day. On December 19 the Department of Justice released hundreds of thousands of pages of documents. Some, however, had been previously released, and others were blacked out completely. Lawmakers and surviving victims criticized the omissions and redactions, which included, as reported by CNN, an image apparently containing a photo of Donald Trump having been removed from the batch of released files, aka the “Epstein Library.” The Justice Department responded that the review was still in process, and on December 23 released another 30,000 pages. This release included a 2020 email from a New York prosecutor stating that flight records showed “… Donald Trump traveled on Epstein’s private jet many more times than previously has been reported (or that we were aware).”
The next batch of files was not released until January 30, 2026. A review of “some of the over 3 million documents “ released by the Justice Department, published February 14 by NBC News found that “[a]t least a half-dozen officials in the Trump administration have connections to Jeffry Epstein.” Officials from Democratic administrations appeared as well, including former President Bill Clinton, his Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and former Obama White House counsel Kathy Ruemmler. Trump’s Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, under questioning from Senate Appropriations Committee member on February 10 admitted having continued to associate with Epstein after his 2008 conviction for soliciting child prostitution – something Lutnick had previously denied.
NPR went further, reporting on February 24 that they had determined the Justice Department withheld more than 50 pages of FBI interviews and notes regarding a woman who “accused Trump of sexual abuse decades ago when she was a minor.” “NPR's investigation found dozens of pages that appear to be catalogued by the Justice Department but not shared publicly,” the report stated.
The NPR review of released material found that the FBI circulated internally “Epstein-related allegations that mention Trump” in July and August of 2025. Most of the allegations were deemed “unverifiable or not credible” according to NPR. One item was sent to the FBI’s Washington office, however, with the intent of setting up an interview with the accuser.
The woman who directly named Trump in her abuse allegation claimed that around 1983, when she was around 13 years old, Epstein introduced her to Trump, "who subsequently forced her head down to his exposed penis which she subsequently bit. In response, Trump punched her in the head and kicked her out."
NPR found that the FBI interviewed this individual four times. Only the first interview, which does not mention Trump, is included in the public database.
The Charleston, SC Post and Courier provided additional detail surrounding these allegations in a report published March 8. The incident in question reportedly occurred during the time that Trump was developing a new casino in Atlantic City, and occurred in “a very tall building with huge rooms.” The report implies that this occurred in New York City where the accuser had family connections. The Post and Courier verified aspects of the story, including an address where the accuser’s mother lived at one time, and the likely date and address of her death. The alleged victim fell on hard times after her association with Epstein, including criminal charges, drug dependency, and “domestic turmoil.” She reportedly told the FBI that she did not believe any purpose would be served by publicizing her story because the events happened so long ago, and Trump had been elected president. She informed FBI agents in August 2019 that she had sued the Epstein estate.
Also in early March, the Miami Herald’s Julie K. Brown, who has been a key investigator of Jeffrey Epstein, reported that, an inmate at the Metropolitan Correctional Center, where Epstein was incarcerated, told FBI agents that he overheard guards discussing Epstein’s death the morning he died. The inmate claimed that on August 10, 2019, he awoke to a commotion, heard officers shouting “Breathe!,” and someone say “Dudes, you killed that dude.” According to the Herald, the inmate then heard a female office say “If he is dead, we’re going to cover it up and he’s going to have an alibi -- my officers….” The inmate further stated that, after learning that Epstein died, he overheard inmates saying “Miss Noel killed Jeffrey.” The inmate being interviewed identified female guard Tova Noel, who was one of two officers “later charged with falsifying reports so that it appeared from their records that they had made their rounds that night – when they had not.” Charges were eventually dropped but the officers were fired. The same day the Herald posted the inmate’s accusations, the NY Post reported that Noel’s bank had flagged a $5,000 deposit on July 30, 2019, a week after Epstein was found dead in his cell.
[Noel’s] bank records, which are in the [Epstein] files, showed that Noel received thousands of dollars in cash and Zelle payments in the months before Epstein died. She has not been charged with any crime. The Miami Herald was unsuccessful in reaching her attorney….